We will initially use load forecasts provided by our end-use load-serving customers. Such customers are required, under ATC’s Distribution-Transmission Interconnection Agreements and Network Operating Agreements, to provide ATC with monthly peak demand forecasts for the next ten years. We may, in the future, develop load forecasts either concurrent with or independent of our load-serving customers. In addition, we may, in coordination with our load-serving customers, develop representative load duration curves based on actual and normalized load conditions. The ATC methodology for developing, aggregating and maintaining load forecast information will follow the NERC Standards MOD-010-0 and MOD-011-0.

In utilizing or developing load forecasts, the following criteria will be used:

1. Summer peak demand forecasts will be calculated in such a way that there is an almost equal probability of exceeding or falling short of the forecast when average peak making weather does occur.
2. Winter peak demand forecasts are assumed to be 80% of summer peak unless directed otherwise by the Load Distribution Company (LDC). Non-scalable loads remain unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.
3. Summer shoulder peak demand forecasts are assumed to be 70% of summer peak. Non-scalable loads remain unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.
4. Fall/spring off-peak demand forecasts are assumed to be 70% of summer peak unless directed otherwise by the LDC. Non-scalable loads remain unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.
5. Summer 90/10 proxy peak demand forecasts will be developed that reflect above-average summer weather and peak demand conditions. A true summer 90/10 forecast will be calculated in such a way that there is a 90 percent probability of falling short of and a 10 percent probability of exceeding the forecast due to weather conditions. Until we develop the capability for producing a specific 90/10 forecast, we will assume that it can be reasonably approximated through increasing the summer peak conforming load forecast by about 5 percent and leaving the non-scalable loads unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.
6. Light load (50 percent of peak) demand forecasts will be developed such that is the conforming loads are scaled to 50 percent of the summer peak demand forecasts. Non-scalable loads will remain unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.
7. Minimum load (40 percent of peak) demand forecasts will be developed such that the conforming loads are scaled to 40 percent of the summer peak demand forecasts. Non-scalable loads will remain unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.