American Transmission Company - 10-Year Assessment

	ABOUT
		Executive Summary Planning Approach Planning Zones Public Participation Contact Search

RELATED RESOURCES

Planning criteria and tools

Technical documents

Table ZS-5 -- ATC Day Ahead Market Constraints

Table ZS-6 -- ATC Real Time Market Constraints

ECONOMIC PROJECT PLANNING

Congestion Severity Index

ATC has developed a Congestion Severity Index for use in 2009 as the screening indicator to track locations on the transmission system where constraints to the delivery of economic energy exist. The Congestion Severity Index combines the financial impact of constraints with the frequency of constraints. The financial impact during an hour is the calculated theoretical maximum number of dollars that could be paid into the market due to congestion on the constraint in question. The sum total of the financial impacts for each hour during which the constraint occurs forms the basis of the Congestion Severity Index. This information is used as a starting point in determining areas of the system where potential upgrades may be cost-effective. This data is combined with stakeholder input and ATC planning recommendations to identify a group of projects to study. A list of the most severe market constraints in the Day Ahead and Real Time markets for 2008 is given in Tables ZS-5 and ZS-6, respectively.

Stakeholder Input and Analyses

In March 2008, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 890-A took effect. As part of this order, FERC requires a coordinated, open, and transparent transmission planning process on both a local and regional level. To comply with these requirements, ATC submitted a compliance filing on Order 890-A that provides a timeline of actions to ensure that the economic planning process is both coordinated and open.

Annually, ATC will use a process with consistent timelines that combines stakeholder input, historical data, future line flow forecasts, and updated information on the electric system to identify transmission upgrades for economic evaluation.

Each year:

During February, we hold an initial stakeholder meeting to review the market congestion summary and potential fixes and to discuss economic study scenarios, drivers, ranges, and assumptions.
By March 1, we work with stakeholders to request and prioritize new/other economic studies and recommend study assumptions.
By April 15 – we identify preliminary areas of economic study, study assumptions and models and solicit further comments from stakeholders.
By May 15 – we finalize areas of economic study, study assumptions and models to be used in analysis.
By November 15 – we provide a summary of the results of the economic analyses to our stakeholders.

ATC conducts analyses of the projects identified for study over several months' time and posts the key results, including the extent to which these savings offset project costs. When the expected benefits of a studied project are high enough to justify its costs, the process of developing it as a formal proposal is begun.

As a result of the 2009 ATC/stakeholder collaborative process, we are performing economic analyses on the following projects:

North La Crosse – Spring Green – Cardinal 345 kV,
Lore - Spring Green - Cardinal 345 kV,
A combination of the two above projects,
Genoa – North Monroe 765 kV, and
Bain – Zion 345 kV

Studies will be performed and results shared with stakeholders over the course of the year. In addition, customers and stakeholders who would like to request specific economic studies can do so if they are willing to pay for the studies and are willing to have the results posted publicly.

Additional economic analysis will be performed on 20 projects from the 2009 10-Year Assessment project list to determine whether those projects are candidates for acceleration or deferral based on economic considerations. Prioritization of this list of 20 projects will be based primarily on the capital costs of the projects; however, lower cost projects specifically identified by the ATC planning department will also be included in the study. Generation interconnection and distribution interconnection projects will not be eligible for inclusion in this list. Further, capacitor bank projects are not considered since the voltage benefits provided are not captured by the PROMOD software analysis. Finally, projects with in-service dates prior to 2011 are not considered since development of those projects is too far underway to make scheduling changes.

2009 Meetings and materials

November ATC economic analysis update (posted 11/15/09)

On May 28, 2009, ATC posted the original 2009 Futures Matrix. ATC then hosted a meeting and web conference to discuss this material on July 10, 2009. At that time, ATC anticipated that the latest base PROMOD models would be available shortly thereafter, but certain modifications to the base models and assumptions were not finalized until the end of August.

As a result of this delay, ATC was able to further review input received from stakeholders along with local and regional developments related to transmission planning for future Extra High Voltage (EHV) projects. Based on this review, significant updates were made to the 2009 Futures Matrix which was subsequently posted on September 18, 2009. Another update to the Futures Matrix was posted today, November 15, 2009, that reflects additional information concerning distributed renewable generation (DRG) and Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements across MISO’s footprint.

At this point, ATC is still in the process of finalizing the development of the PROMOD models based on the updated 2009 Futures Matrix. Model development is anticipated to be complete towards the middle of December. At that point, analysis will commence to study the impacts of the projects identified earlier this year. A stakeholder meeting will be scheduled to discuss the results of this analysis upon completion of the PROMOD studies sometime early in 2010.

Any comments or inquiries related to these studies can be submitted to Jamal Khudai, Manager – Economic Planning, at jkhudai@atcllc.com.

ATC’s Futures Matrix summarizes the assumptions that are used to develop ATC’s economic planning models. Since ATC posted its May 28, 2009 Futures Matrix, it has continued to receive input from stakeholders and to review local and regional developments related to transmission planning for future Extra High Voltage (EHV) projects. As a result of this ongoing review and the additional information related to DRG and RPS requirements across MISO, ATC developed its final Updated Futures Matrix for the 2020 study year. A Description of the Update to the DRG Information and a Narrative of Each of the Futures is also available. The projects to be studied in 2009 are:

North La Crosse-Spring Green-Cardinal 345 kV,

Lore-Spring Green-Cardinal 345 kV,
A combination of both of the two lines listed above,

North La Crosse – North Madison – Cardinal 345 kV,
Low voltage alternative,
Genoa-North Monroe 765 KV, and

Bain-Zion 345 kV.

July meeting (posted 06/09/09)

July 10, 2009 - 9:30 am - 2 pm RSVP requested

Meeting agenda (agenda and materials updated 7/10/09)

Agenda Item 1: Opening Remarks

Agenda Item 2: 2009 Futures Matrix Review

Agenda Item 2A: 2009 Futures Matrix Descriptions

Agenda Item 2B: 2009 Futures Matrix

Agenda Item 3: Detail PROMOD Study Assumptions

Agenda Item 3A: Detail PROMOD Study Assumptions: Demand Response Modeling

Agenda Item 4:Economic Projects to Study

Agenda Item 5: Regional Planning Updates

Agenda Item 6: 10-Year Assessment Solutions

Agenda Item 6: 10-Year Assessment Futures

Agenda Item 6: 10-Year Assessment Scope

Agenda Item 7: Adjorn

Stakeholder feedback from July 2009 meeting

March meeeting (posted 02/11/09)

March 6, 2009 - 9 am - 3 pm RSVP requested

Meeting agenda (agenda and materials updated 3/5/09)

Agenda Item 1: Economic planning study results (updated 6/10/09)*

Agenda Item 1: Supplemental information

Agenda Item 2: Economic metric comparisons

Agenda Item 3: Congestion review

Agenda Item 4: 2009 Futures: economic and reliability studies

Agenda Item 5: West Wisconsin study and UMTDI and RGOS update

Agenda Item 6: 2009 10-Year Assessment update

Agenda Item 6: Energy collaborative supplement

* An adjustment was made to update an incorrect value for the 40-Year PV Savings of the Slow Growth Future with North La Crosse – Hilltop – Spring Green – Cardinal 345 kV Project in the Economic Planning Study Results presentation. The updated value can be found on Slide 9 of the presentation.

Stakeholder feedback from December 2008 meeting

Economic projects under consideration

2008 Meetings and materials

December meeting (posted 12/18/08)

December 18, 2008 - 9:30-11:30am

Web meeting/conference call

Meeting Agenda

Agenda item 1: Futures Review and Base Case Implementation

Agenda item 2: Base Case Imports and Tie Line Flows

Agenda item 3: Preliminary Base Case and Projects Results

Agenda item 4: Potential Modeling Refinements

On May 15, 2008, ATC posted the final set of assumptions and final futures matrix to be used for ATC’s 2008 economic planning. At that time, ATC anticipated that the latest base PROMOD models would be available shortly but those models were not received until early August. ATC hosted a generation expansion workshop on August 22, 2008 to obtain additional input from stakeholders on the methodology to review the generation expansion assumptions in the MISO models and to add generation to the model to accommodate a wide range of futures. The development of the models for the futures is nearing completion.

December's meeting will discuss interim results.

August meeting materials (posted 8/25/08)

Meeting agenda

Generation needed for various futures

MISO siting spreadsheet for MTEP 2009

June planning meeting materials (posted 6/18/08)

Meeting agenda

Agenda item 1: Futures diagrams

Agenda item 1: Futures narratives

Agenda item 2: Peak load forecasts

Agenda item 3: Generation portfolio

Agenda item 4: Modeling modifications